1. Effective and potential demand

When researching the demand for public transport services, there are two different kinds of demand to consider:

Effective demand addresses journeys that are actually executed. For public transport, a minimum is to know the demand on particular routes and lines. Other aspects of effective demand that should be measures include:

  • The volume of demand with respect to routes, lines, time periods, modes of transport and origin-destination information
  • Information on ticket structure and the intensity of use of season ticket

Researching the profitability of a line is based on the ticket structure and the scope of reduced tariffs.

Potential demand is the demand that could be transformed into effective demand if some requirements are fulfilled. Measuring it is less precise than measuring actual demand and will require some assumptions (e.g. the "induced demand" value when a new public transport line is opened).

Effective and potential demand

Source: K. Hebel: Zachowania transportowe mieszkańców w kształtowaniu transportu miejskiego. Fundacja Rozwoju Uniwersytetu Gdańskiego, Gdańsk 2013, s. 64