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Unit 4: Your Task

Unit 4: Your Task

by Deleted user -
Number of replies: 1

Scenario development requires a lot of work on the part of the local authority. Careful technical analyses - both quantitative and qualitative - need to be carried out to anticipate how certain mobility priorities will affect the future development of the city and its citizens. At the same time, as you have learned, these scenarios are meant to spark public discussion for the future development of mobility visions, priorities and goals. For this task, you are asked to:

  1. Examine the following excerpts of the West Yorkshire Local Transport Plan 2011-2026 and take a look at their scenario development process. These documents provide insight into the technical aspects of scenario development:
    1. An overview of their do-nothing scenario analysis (page 41)
    2. Appendix D Use of the Urban Dynamic Model in the Development of LTP3 (page 45-54 in PDF document) compares four potential packages of measures with what they call the 'do-minimum' scenario (also known as the business-as-usual scenario). It also analyses three options for the Implementation Plan 2011-2014
  2. Explore the two interactive scenarios presented on the Future Bristol project page. This website was created to invite the public's input after conducting comprehensive research for each of the scenarios.
  3. Answer the following questions:
  • What do you like about the scenarios mentioned here? What would you like to see implemented in your own city?
  • What are the benefits of scenario development? How can it help in informing decision making? What are the limitations of scenarios?
In reply to Deleted user

Re: Unit 4: Your Task

by Deleted user -

Scenario building in SUMP development requires a robust assessment system for the scenario evaluation due to the fact that the sustainability is multidisciplinary, thus the different dimensions of sustainability are interpreted through different goals. Currently there is no universally accepted assessment procedure, plus sustainability is not perceived in the same way. Various biases (i.e overconfidence,  over- and under-prediction) can easily appear not only when presenting the things we know, but mostly when assuming things we don't know.  Although scenario building supports the decision making through the quantification of the impacts of selected measures and policies, there are limitations also related to the availability of data (further to the limitations mentioned above).